Straight Angle™: Is this a False alarm?
Monday, May 30, 2005

Is this a False alarm? 

A recent article in the wired magazine and Salon on the same issue, raised a bit of doubt in me, on the possible false alarms in the claim. The issue is the fast repleting Oil reserves of the world. The developing world is replete with stories of how the Oil wealth of the globe is fast depleting and how the production would peak and then start falling. That would eventually be the death knock on the global economy, that runs on Cheap oil. The statistics that these people reel out, too adds to the secrecy around the entire issue. But as dooms dayers predict, it might be true that Oil reserves are non-replenishable and they would deplete. But, when?..that would be the biggest question that needs to be answered. Till now, all the developed countries had developed only riding the Oil wave, with their economies pumped up by the cheap and abundant oil that the earth provided them. Now that there is China and India and other fast developing countries that are claiming a part of that pie from the developed world, is the first world getting shivers that the end might be soon and are trying to scare the developing world into not using the Oil, so that they can use it, or are they trying to spread a phobia, there by increasing the oil prices that are in dollars, so that even a moderate price hike can be taken in by the West, but the developing countries that already have a huge burden, couldn't stand that and so would go bust. I know, these are most cynical, but remember, with Bushy around, you can never be sure of anything.
But Iam quite impressed with the logic of Kenneth S. Deffeyes.. Being a strong proponent of the Normal Curve logic of Life, I find his explanation( as found in the wired magazine) very interesting. I firmly beleive in the infallibility of the Bell Curve (remember that curve that gives the Probablities...) I think that is one of the foremost discoveries of men. I beleive everything in this world follows the bell curve logic, atleast I am convinced that after fitting many an event in a bell curve and finding it religiously following the curve. My personal opinion is that, it might not be a false alarm..afterall...coz the logic seems to follow the bell curve.


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